Italy U21 must beat Poland by two goals to top Euro qualifying group

Silvio Baldini’s Italy U21 side must overcome Poland by at least two clear goals in their final Group E match to finish first and avoid relying on the runners-up ranking for direct qualification for the European Championship.

Italy are second with 24 points, three behind Poland, following Cisse’s late winner in Armenia. The two teams meet on the final matchday, with the group’s decisive fixture set to determine who finishes top.

A victory would not automatically be enough for Italy. Poland won the reverse meeting 2-1 in November 2025, and UEFA’s regulations use head-to-head records as the first ranking criterion when teams finish level on points.

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If Italy win by a single goal, the head-to-head mini-table would be level. Overall goal difference would then be used, and Poland would still have the advantage, leading 23-22. Italy therefore need a two-goal victory to move above Poland at the summit.

Both teams have already secured at least second place in Group E. A draw or a Poland win would leave Italy as runners-up, but that would not end their hopes of reaching the finals.

The best second-placed team from the nine qualifying groups advances directly to the tournament. The other eight runners-up will enter play-offs in November, with four qualification places available.

Italy currently occupy second place in the overall runners-up standings with 24 points. They are level with Greece but sit marginally lower because of their inferior goal difference.

That table is not yet final. Results against the bottom-ranked team in each group are removed from the calculation, meaning the standings can change once all the qualifying matches have been completed.

Italy’s route to direct qualification is therefore clear: they must beat Poland by two goals or more. A narrower victory would leave them behind Poland on the relevant tie-breakers, while any other result would send them into the runners-up comparison.

The European Championship finals will be held in Albania and Serbia from 16 June to 3 July 2027.