Tottenham ended their wait for a first Premier League win of the season by beating Coventry City 3-1 on Monday, but face a far tougher test when they travel across London to meet Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.
The victory was only Tottenham’s second home league win of 2026, after their 1-0 success against Everton on the final day of last season secured their safety.
James Maddison marked his first competitive start since May 2025 with a spectacular goal, Omar Marmoush scored his first for Spurs and substitute Ben Davies sealed the points in stoppage time. Dejan Kulusevski also returned after being injured since May last year.
It was Tottenham’s first Premier League match with more than 2+ goals in 36 games and their first home league game with 3+ goals since a 3-0 win over Burnley on the opening day of last season.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have now won, but the statistics suggest Chelsea remain favourites. The hosts have lost only one of their past 16 Premier League London derbies at Stamford Bridge, winning 11 and drawing four. That defeat came against Fulham on Boxing Day in 2024-25.
Chelsea have, however, lost their past two home and away matches, against Arsenal and Brentford, while Tottenham have lost their last six London derbies. They have never previously lost seven consecutive league derbies.
Chelsea have also won their past six Premier League games against Spurs, matching their longest winning run against their London rivals, achieved between January 2000 and March 2002.
Tottenham’s record at Stamford Bridge is poor. They have won only one of their past 36 league visits there, a 3-1 victory under Mauricio Pochettino in 2017-18, and have collected just two points from their eight visits since then.
Opta’s model gives Chelsea a 53.6% chance of victory, compared with 23.8% for a draw and 22.6% for a Tottenham win.
Chelsea’s attacking strength
Chelsea defeated Everton 2-0 last weekend to record their first Premier League clean sheet since January. They are seeking three successive league wins for the first time since a run of four in January and February, while their last consecutive shutouts came in December last season.
Their defence has allowed chances worth 10.6 expected goals against (xGA), and 13 goals conceded is bettered by only five top-flight teams: Crystal Palace (17), Ipswich Town (15), Sunderland (14), Newcastle United (14) and Coventry (14). Only Crystal Palace, with 43, have allowed more shots on target than Chelsea’s 41.
Chelsea’s attack has compensated for those problems. They have scored 17 league goals, behind only Manchester City (19) and Brighton (23), while exceeding their expected goals total of 9.9 by 7.1. Only Brighton’s +8.1 is a greater overperformance.
Morgan Rogers, Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer lead the threat. Pedro (+2.0) and Rogers (+1.9) rank fourth and fifth for xG overperformance, while Pedro Neto is sixth at +1.8 after scoring twice against Everton.
Rogers has four goals and two assists in six games against Spurs, all for Aston Villa. Since 2024-25, only Eberechi Eze, with seven, has scored more against Tottenham in all competitions.
Maddison offers Spurs hope
Tottenham have recorded only 7.5 xG this season, more than Coventry (7.1) and Hull City (6.8) alone. Since the start of last season, they have won successive league games only twice, in August 2025 and May 2026.
Before Maddison struck from the edge of the box in the 14th minute against Coventry, Spurs had not scored a league goal before the 86th minute. They then became the first team to score three goals from outside the area in one Premier League match since Fulham v Leicester City in May 2023.
It was also their first league game with 3+ goals from outside the box since September 2022 against Leicester. Half of their league goals this season have come from outside the area (3/6), the highest proportion in the division.
Maddison has scored 21 Premier League goals from outside the box since his debut in August 2018, at least two more than any other player. Kevin De Bruyne and James Ward-Prowse have 19 each.
Chelsea’s Cole Palmer has contributed to five goals in five Premier League appearances against Spurs, scoring twice and assisting twice. His next league goal will be his 50th, making him the third-fastest Chelsea player to reach that mark if he scores in this match, in 104 games. He has created 15 league chances this season.
Kulusevski was named in Tottenham’s Premier League matchday squad for the first time in 526 days on Monday. His late return was greeted by a huge ovation, although he was understandably rusty. He is expected to begin on the bench again, but could provide De Zerbi with a useful option after gaining some minutes.
