Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, has identified his best bets for a packed weekend of Premier League action, including support for Aston Villa against Manchester City and Bournemouth at Manchester United.
Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest – Friday, 20:00, live on Sky Sports
Liam Delap faces an uncomfortable return to Ipswich Town, where the forward was one of the few bright points during their 2024/25 relegation campaign. This time, however, he will be trying to lead the opposition attack at Portman Road.
Delap is at his best when games become physical and confrontational. He recently said he performs well when he gets in opponents’ faces, but that aggressive approach can also make him vulnerable to losing control.
He averaged 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes during Ipswich’s relegation season and was booked 12 times in the Premier League. The pattern has continued at Nottingham Forest, with two yellow cards in his five starts this season.
Thomas Bramall, who referees this match, also sent Delap off for two yellow cards during Chelsea’s win at Wolves last season. With the Ipswich crowd likely to target him, Delap to be booked at 3/1 with Sky Bet is the preferred bet.
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 1-2 Nottingham Forest
Best bet: Liam Delap to be carded – 3/1 with Sky Bet
Aston Villa v Manchester City – Saturday, 12:30
Aston Villa’s home record against the Premier League’s leading sides under Unai Emery makes them difficult to oppose when they are clear underdogs.
Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Villa have played 13 home matches against teams that finished in the top four that season. They have won eight, drawn two and lost three, collecting an average of 2.00 points per game. Backing them to win each of those matches with £1 level stakes would have produced a £16 profit.
All three of Villa’s home victories against Manchester City during that period are included in the record.
Manchester City’s seven wins from seven league matches and their reputation are reflected in the betting, but those factors should not automatically make Villa a side to oppose. Emery’s team recovered from a difficult start by beating Newcastle in a manner which underlined their tactical organisation and intensity.
City are unbeaten in the league so far, but Villa’s home support, approach and recent record in this fixture suggest the visitors face a tougher test than their perfect start indicates.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City
Best bet: Aston Villa double chance – 6/5 with Sky Bet
Arsenal v Everton – Saturday, 15:00
Everton have become difficult to beat under David Moyes, although his teams have struggled significantly when visiting the Premier League’s strongest clubs. Since his first spell in charge of West Ham began, Moyes has lost 21 of 22 away matches at Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Arsenal to win is therefore an obvious starting point, but the more attractive option is a home victory combined with fewer than 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
That bet has succeeded in 12 of Arsenal’s last 14 home games in the Premier League and Champions League, including each of their past eight at home. Mikel Arteta’s side are built around controlling matches and limiting opponents, then managing games once they take the lead.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton
Coventry v Fulham – Saturday, 15:00
Fulham’s attacking figures make them appealing in the goals market. They average a league-high 33.5 touches in the opposition penalty area per game this season, including 54 against Hull.
That figure is not solely the result of one exceptional performance. Fulham have produced 1.34 expected goals per 90 minutes from open play, bettered only by Brighton and Manchester City.
The data points to a team regularly creating good chances rather than depending on isolated moments. Fulham to score at least twice against Coventry is available at Evens with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Coventry 1-2 Fulham
Best bet: Fulham to score over 1.5 goals – Evens with Sky Bet
Chelsea v Tottenham – Saturday, 17:30, live on Sky Sports
This fixture has traditionally produced plenty of disciplinary action. The last seven meetings between Chelsea and Tottenham have averaged six cards per game, while referee Chris Kavanagh has shown 4.2 cards per 90 minutes since the start of last season – the third-highest average among Premier League referees in that period.
The over-5.5-cards market is priced at 20/23 with Sky Bet, but the better option is considered to be a player to be booked, with Levi Colwill available at 4/1.
Tottenham’s James Maddison has been particularly effective at drawing fouls and cards. Since 2018, he has been involved in opponents receiving 77 yellow cards, equivalent to one every 215 minutes. He has already helped get two players booked this season and appears to be recovering the close control and quick movement that can tempt defenders into rash challenges.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Tottenham
Best bet: Levi Colwill to be carded – 4/1 with Sky Bet
Crystal Palace v Newcastle – Sunday, 14:00, live on Sky Sports
A goalless first half may appear an unlikely selection given Crystal Palace’s defensive problems. Palace have conceded at least twice in 11 of their last 13 Premier League matches, with the underlying numbers painting a similarly poor picture.
However, something may need to change after the 5-0 defeat by Brighton. Pierre Sage said afterwards that he needed to alter his team’s approach, which could lead to a more cautious performance against Newcastle.
Palace cannot continue exposing themselves in the same way, and a conservative opening period may be the response. The price for the match to be 0-0 at half-time is 5/2 with Sky Bet.
The wider figures offer some support: 21 of the last 45 Premier League games have been goalless at the interval.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-0 Newcastle
Hull v Brentford – Sunday, 14:00, live on Sky Sports
Hull’s direct style, with Oli McBurnie leading the line, has created a notable trend involving opposition centre-backs.
Defenders in that position are averaging 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 minutes against Hull. McBurnie’s physical approach, his ability to compete for high balls and the pressure he puts on defenders help explain the figure.
Brentford’s Kristoffer Ajer has already drawn three fouls over his last two games and is priced at 10/11 with Sky Bet to be fouled at least once.
Score prediction: Hull 1-1 Brentford
Best bet: Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once – 10/11 with Sky Bet
Liverpool v Brighton – Sunday, 14:00, live on Sky Sports
Brighton may be early candidates to challenge for the Premier League title, with Fabian Hurzeler’s record against the division’s leading clubs providing a strong reason to take them seriously.
Since Hurzeler’s appointment in 2024, Brighton have collected 19 points from 13 league matches against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City – more than any other team. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 17 across those fixtures, giving them an aggregate advantage of 20-17 against three of English football’s strongest sides.
Brighton were particularly impressive without the ball in their most recent match against Crystal Palace. Anfield and Liverpool’s quality will make this a major examination, but Brighton’s record suggests they should not be treated as outsiders simply because of the opposition’s reputation.
Brighton draw no bet is available at 11/8 with Sky Bet, offering a return if they win while protecting the stake if the game ends level.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Brighton
Manchester United v Bournemouth – Sunday, 14:00, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United are strong favourites, despite a run of form which gives little reason for confidence.
Their seven points from the opening seven Premier League games represent their worst start to a top-flight season for 37 years. They are also without a win in seven matches in all competitions, having lost four and drawn three.
There is also a concern about the team’s unity. Bruno Fernandes’ body language has been notable, while his comments after the match against Como did little to suggest a group moving in the same direction.
Bournemouth have greater reason to believe they can take something from Old Trafford. They are unbeaten in their last six meetings with United and have scored 15 goals during that sequence.
Bournemouth draw no bet provides a return of the stake if the match is drawn, while a victory is priced at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Bournemouth
Best bet: Bournemouth draw no bet – 11/8 with Sky Bet
Sunderland v Leeds – Sunday, 16:30, live on Sky Sports
The draw is the selection in a match where the three-way market may offer the most value.
Backing Premier League draws over the past two seasons has returned a profit of 46 points to £1 level stakes. Previous results do not guarantee future returns, but the figures highlight how frequently the draw can be overlooked by those seeking a winner.
Leeds have drawn eight of their last 16 Premier League matches, making the 21/10 price with Sky Bet for another draw worth considering.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds
