Premier League predictions: Manchester City marginal favourites for Anfield clash

Manchester City remain the Premier League’s only perfect team after five matches, but their unbeaten start faces its biggest test yet when they visit Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday.

The meeting is the headline fixture of matchweek six, with Opta giving Manchester City a 40.7% chance of victory, compared with 34.6% for Liverpool and 24.7% for a draw.

Arsenal’s 3-0 defeat by Brighton means City are now the sole side with a 100% record. Brentford, Leeds United, Liverpool and Everton are also unbeaten, while Tottenham are bottom of the table.

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Brighton sit third after their emphatic win at Arsenal, although Roberto De Zerbi’s side are still without a Premier League victory this season. They scored their first league goals of the campaign in a 3-2 defeat by Aston Villa. Fulham and Bournemouth are also yet to win, while Coventry City claimed their first points before the international break by beating Nottingham Forest.

Arsenal v Leeds United

Arsenal begin the weekend on Saturday against Leeds United, seeking a response to their heaviest defeat since May 2023, when they also lost 3-0 to Brighton.

The Gunners have lost consecutive Premier League matches only once since the start of 2024, in April 2026, and this will be their 100th league game since then.

Arsenal have won nine of their past 10 meetings with Leeds, drawing the other, and have taken victory in each of the last seven. Leeds, meanwhile, have won only one of their past 17 league visits to the reigning top-flight champions, drawing six and losing 10.

Opta makes Arsenal the strongest selection of matchweek six, with a 68.9% win probability against Leeds’ 13.7%. The visitors have nevertheless begun a league season unbeaten in their first five matches for the first time since their promotion-winning 2019-20 campaign, recording two wins and three draws.

Mikel Arteta, who signed a three-year contract extension this week, has won all four of his Premier League meetings with Daniel Farke. That is his joint-best 100% record against a top-flight manager, alongside Gary O’Neil, while Farke has never beaten any manager in England four times in succession.

Aston Villa v Brentford

Aston Villa, who finally defeated Tottenham for their first league win of the season, are rated at 47.8% to beat Brentford, who have a 26.2% chance.

Brentford have started a league campaign unbeaten in five matches for the first time since 2013-14 in League One, when they recorded two wins and three draws. Their longest unbeaten start came in 2006-07, when they went through their first seven matches in the third tier without defeat.

The Bees have now avoided defeat in their last seven top-flight games, winning two and drawing five, and are attempting to beat Villa for a third consecutive time after completing the league double last season.

Villa have lost only one of their last 11 home league meetings with Brentford, winning four and drawing six. That defeat came in this fixture last season, when Brentford won 1-0.

Unai Emery will want to improve Villa’s attacking numbers. They have recorded the fewest shots in the division this season, with 48, as well as the fewest shots on target, 12, and touches in the opposition penalty area, 81.

Chelsea v Bournemouth

Chelsea are attempting to end a three-match winless run in all competitions when they entertain Bournemouth in what has been a difficult opening spell for Xabi Alonso.

The Blues’ five league matches under Alonso have produced 22 goals in total, with Chelsea scoring 10 and conceding 12. They are the first team in a Premier League campaign to score at least 10 and concede at least 10 across their opening five games.

Chelsea have a 51.8% chance of winning and are unbeaten in their last nine top-flight meetings with Bournemouth, winning four and drawing five. Each of the last three encounters has ended level, with Opta giving another draw a 22.9% probability.

Bournemouth manager Marco Rose is the second Cherries boss to go without a win in his opening five top-flight matches, after predecessor Andoni Iraola failed to win his first nine.

However, Bournemouth have taken 20 away points in the Premier League in 2026, winning five, drawing five and losing once. Only Arsenal, with 27, and Manchester City, with 23, have collected more. Bournemouth won 25.3% of Opta’s pre-match simulations.

Ipswich Town v Fulham

Fulham remain without a victory after conceding a late equaliser against Manchester United in their previous game, and next travel to Ipswich Town.

Ipswich are rated as favourites at 44.8%, although they have not beaten Fulham in their last seven league meetings, drawing three and losing four. Both matches between the sides in 2024-25 ended in draws, with another stalemate given a 26.9% chance.

Fulham have also failed to beat Ipswich in all four of their top-flight meetings, drawing three and losing one. That is their joint-longest run against a team they have never defeated in the competition, alongside Watford. They have a 28.3% chance of ending that sequence on Saturday.

The Cottagers have not gone six consecutive league matches without winning in the same season since their final 10 games of 2020-21, when they drew two and lost eight. They have lost only one of their past 15 Premier League matches against promoted teams, winning nine and drawing five.

Sunderland v Brighton

Brighton will try to maintain their momentum when they visit Sunderland in the final 15:00 kick-off on Saturday.

The Seagulls have won their last two Premier League games by an aggregate score of 8-0. They have won three consecutive matches without conceding only once before, in October 2018.

Fabian Hurzeler’s side lead the league for high turnovers, with 56, passes allowed per defensive action, at 7.4, and possession, at 64.8%.

Sunderland have lost their past two matches, but their direct approach could challenge Brighton’s high press. Only Manchester City, with 19, have allowed fewer high turnovers than Sunderland’s 20.

Brighton remain favourites with a 41.3% win probability, although Sunderland are given a 33.1% chance.

Manchester United v Tottenham

Manchester United host Tottenham at Old Trafford in Saturday’s late match, with both managers under pressure.

United have five points from their opening five games, equalling their worst start to a Premier League season, matching 2014-15. Michael Carrick’s side are averaging one point per game this season, compared with 2.3 points per match across his 17 games in charge last term.

Tottenham could fail to win any of their first six league matches for only the fourth time, following 1912-13, when they went winless in their first 12, and 1955-56 and 2008-09, when they failed to win their opening six. Among clubs ever-present in the Premier League, Spurs have accumulated the fewest points in 2026, with 18.

Tottenham have lost 25 away Premier League games against Manchester United. Only Everton’s 26 defeats at Arsenal represent more losses by one side at a single opponent.

Opta gives United a 54.1% chance of victory, with Tottenham on 22.3%. De Zerbi won his only previous away Premier League match against United, with Brighton in September 2023. Only Sam Allardyce, Ronald Koeman, Pep Guardiola and Iraola have won their first two visits to Old Trafford as visiting managers.

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace face former manager Oliver Glasner when they meet Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

Glasner guided Palace through the most successful period in the club’s history, winning the FA Cup, the Community Shield and the Conference League. His move to Forest was viewed negatively by Palace after Forest replaced them in last season’s Europa League when Palace were expelled for breaching multi-club ownership rules.

This is Opta’s most likely draw of matchweek six, at 28.8%. Palace have a 36.3% win probability and Forest 34.9%.

Former Palace managers have won only one of their seven Premier League matches against the club after leaving, drawing two and losing four. Allardyce was the only one to do so, beating Palace with Everton in February 2018.

Palace have lost both home league games this term and could lose their opening three at Selhurst Park for only the fourth time, after 1997-98, 2004-05 and 2017-18.

Forest, though, have lost only one of their last seven away league matches, winning four and drawing two. They have scored at least twice in all seven, their longest such run in the top flight. Only seven teams have scored multiple goals in eight or more consecutive away Premier League games, with Bournemouth the most recent, between November 2024 and February 2025.

Hull City v Everton

Hull City’s surprise start ended with their first defeat, against Newcastle United, on matchday five. They now host unbeaten Everton.

The Tigers have adopted a direct style and have averaged only 32.3% possession, the lowest recorded by any Premier League team in a single campaign since 2003-04. Their 203 successful passes per match are also the fewest since Cardiff City averaged 172 in 2018-19.

Hull are the only side yet to concede at home this season and could join Swansea in 2011-12, who kept four, and Watford in 2015-16, who kept three, as the only promoted teams to record clean sheets in their first three home matches.

Everton have not won any of their last seven Premier League away games, drawing four and losing three, but Opta still gives them a 45.7% chance of beating Hull, who are rated at 28.4%.

Liverpool v Manchester City

Manchester City’s eventful international break will be followed by a return to club football at Anfield, where they face Liverpool.

City were found guilty of breaching Premier League financial rules between 2009 and 2018. Their immediate focus now turns to maintaining their perfect start under Enzo Maresca.

Maresca could become only the fourth manager to win his first six matches in charge of a Premier League club, following Carlo Ancelotti at Chelsea, Guardiola at Manchester City and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at Manchester United.

Liverpool have drawn three of their opening five matches but remain unbeaten. Iraola could become only the third permanent Reds manager to avoid defeat in his first six top-flight matches, after Bob Paisley in 1974 and Joe Fagan in 1983.

The away team has won two of the last three league meetings between Liverpool and Manchester City, equalling the number of away victories in the previous 32 matches. Consecutive away wins in this fixture have occurred only once before, in 2002-03, while City won 2-1 at Anfield in February.

It will be the first Premier League meeting between the clubs without Jurgen Klopp or Guardiola in either dugout since March 2015, when Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool defeated Manuel Pellegrini’s Manchester City 2-1 at Anfield.

Coventry City v Newcastle United

Matchweek six concludes on Monday at the Coventry Building Society Arena, where Coventry City host Newcastle United.

Frank Lampard’s Coventry claimed their first win of the season before the break and could become only the second team in English top-flight history to lose their opening four games without scoring before winning their next two. Derby County achieved that in 1899-00.

The Sky Blues are outsiders, with a 29.8% chance of victory, while Newcastle are given a 44.8% probability of taking all three points.

Matthias Jaissle has collected eight points from his first five Premier League matches in charge of Newcastle, the club’s best total for a manager in that period since Alan Pardew took nine in January 2011.

Victory at Coventry would give Jaissle the club’s highest points total after six Premier League matches since Allardyce collected 11 in September 2007.

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Nuhu Adams

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