Manchester City are unlikely to be expelled from the Premier League and forced to restart in League Two, despite the possibility of a major points deduction and relegation to the Championship, sources close to the disciplinary process have told BBC Sport.
City were found guilty by an independent commission late last month of the vast majority of 115 charges of financial wrongdoing brought by the Premier League. Their appeal is unlikely to be decided before the end of January, while the Premier League is understood to want City’s punishment announced before that outcome.
The most likely sanction is thought to be a substantial points deduction, which would relegate City to the Championship, alongside a significant fine. A further points penalty could also be imposed, potentially keeping them in the Championship for at least another season.
The EFL would not be required to accept such a sanction for one of its clubs, although it is considered probable that it would do so.
City have won their opening seven league games this season, an impressive run achieved after Pep Guardiola’s departure and the appointment of Enzo Maresca as manager. However, that form has not removed the uncertainty surrounding the club or its title prospects.
An expulsion from the Premier League would create unprecedented disruption for both the Premier League and the EFL. If it happened during the season, questions would arise over where City could play, while all of their previous results would have to be declared null and void.
Such a punishment would also have a disproportionate impact on City supporters. The independent commission decided that the club’s ownership was responsible for the sustained period of wrongdoing that gave City an unfair advantage over their rivals.
Steven Gerrard, the former Liverpool captain, has said he wants City to “suffer” for what they have taken from other teams and their supporters. However, removing the club from the league would effectively invalidate the current campaign and satisfy a desire for vengeance at the expense of the competition’s wider stability.
The more serious threat to City’s future could concern their ownership if the appeal fails. It would be difficult for a regime found guilty of such serious deception to remain in control without undermining the authority of the Independent Football Regulator.
There is already scepticism over how much power the regulator possesses. If Sheikh Mansour and the Abu Dhabi United Group were allowed to continue, the credibility of chairman David Kogan would be severely damaged.
City would then face the question of how they could survive without the Abu Dhabi United Group or the hundreds of millions in revenue they now insist came directly from the Abu Dhabi government. Finding another buyer for a club whose reputation has been badly damaged would also be uncertain.
Arsenal move within three points
Arsenal were below their best in Sunday’s 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest at the City Ground, but the victory moved them to within three points of City at the top of the table. Given City’s guilty verdicts, that effectively places Arsenal first.
Arsenal’s recent criticism should be viewed in context. They also impressed during a 3-0 Champions League victory over Lille at Emirates Stadium last week, particularly in the second half, and no team produces its best football every week.
