Alphadjo Cisse’s last-gasp winner has kept Italy’s hopes of finishing top of their European Under-21 Championship qualifying group alive, but the Azzurrini must beat Poland by two clear goals on Monday to take first place.
The match in Pescara is the final fixture of Group E and will decide which team qualifies automatically for next summer’s tournament. Only the group winners go through directly.
Poland have dominated the campaign, winning all nine of their matches. They have scored 26 goals and conceded only two, giving them a perfect record and a significant advantage over Italy.
Silvio Baldini’s side have stayed within reach, winning eight games and losing only their meeting with Poland. Italy surrendered a lead in that match before suffering a 2-1 defeat in November 2025.
Although Italy have also scored 26 times, they have conceded five goals. Poland’s superior overall goal difference means the Azzurrini cannot simply match their opponents’ record in Monday’s decisive game. Italy must establish a better goal difference in the head-to-head contest, which requires a victory by at least two goals.
A one-goal win would not be enough to move Italy into first place.
If Italy fail to achieve the required margin, they can still reach the European Under-21 Championship through the runners-up rankings. The two runners-up with the strongest records will qualify, with results against sixth-placed teams excluded from the comparison.
Greece are expected to be among the teams competing for those places. They also have 24 points and are likely to finish behind Germany because of their head-to-head record.
There are further possible challengers in Group A. Finland have 22 points, while Spain are also on 24, although the importance of their positions will depend on Italy’s outcome against Poland.
Should Italy miss out on automatic qualification and fail to secure one of the two best runners-up places, they would enter the play-offs alongside the other eight group runners-up.
