Harry Kane’s Ballon d’Or success in 2026 has given striking support to a mathematical forecast produced by a Senegalese platform several months earlier.
The Bayern Munich striker was named the world’s best player on Monday evening in London, finishing ahead of Kylian Mbappe, who came second, and Lamine Yamal, who completed the podium.
The result was broadly consistent with the calculations published by specialist website Le meilleur joueur du monde. In August, at an event in Dakar, its Senegalese supercomputer had also ranked Kane first, although only narrowly.
According to journalist Mansour Loum, Kane’s predicted score was 137.3 points, compared with 126.9 for Mbappe.
The model’s assessment reflected the contrasting seasons of the two forwards. Mbappe was more effective than Kane for his country, particularly during the 2026 World Cup, but Kane’s collective achievements with Bayern Munich compensated for that difference.
Mbappe, meanwhile, endured a trophyless campaign at Real Madrid. The pair’s attacking contributions were considered broadly similar.
How the model works
The Senegalese supercomputer is designed as a wider data aggregator intended to offer a fairer and more objective way of identifying the best players of each season.
It uses weekly performance data and what its creators describe as a “unique and innovative calculation model”.
By assessing players on an equal basis regardless of their positions, the system aims to overcome what it sees as limitations in the official Ballon d’Or voting criteria and move as close as possible to an accurate result.
France Football’s stated criteria for the award are a player’s performances and direct influence in major matches, their honours and their fair play.
The official award is decided by journalists from the 100 highest-ranked countries in the FIFA rankings. The publication of the voting results has led to controversy each year.
Kane’s victory therefore closely matched a forecast that had already placed him ahead of Mbappe, despite the Frenchman’s stronger international performances. The final Ballon d’Or standings also saw Lamine Yamal finish third.
The Senegalese platform’s calculation did not replace the official vote, but its August ranking in Dakar anticipated the eventual order at the ceremony in London with considerable accuracy.
