France are at risk of an early UEFA Nations League exit after their 3-1 defeat by Italy left them needing to avoid defeat by Turkey in their final Group A match.
France had travelled to San Siro on Thursday hoping to secure top spot before the final round of fixtures. Instead, they surrendered an early lead given to them by Michael Olise and suffered the first defeat of Zinedine Zidane’s tenure.
The result leaves France second in the group on 10 points, with a goal difference of +3. Italy lead on the same number of points but have a goal difference of +5.
France still control their own qualification prospects and will reach the quarter-finals if they avoid defeat by Turkey in Bordeaux on Sunday, 15 November 2026. A draw would be enough regardless of the outcome of the other match between Italy and Belgium.
Even a defeat may not eliminate France, provided Belgium do not beat Italy in Brussels in the fixture being played at the same time.
However, a combination of results could send Zidane’s team out at the group stage.
How France could be eliminated
If France lose to Turkey, they will remain on 10 points. Should Belgium beat Italy, the Red Devils will move to 12 points, finish top of the group and claim one of the two quarter-final places.
That would leave France and Italy level on 10 points and competing for second place. Under the UEFA Nations League regulations, the first tie-breaker between two teams level on points is the number of points gained in their head-to-head matches.
Italy have the advantage in that comparison. They have taken four points from their two games against France, winning one and drawing the other, while France have collected only one point.
Italy would therefore finish second and qualify for the quarter-finals, with France dropping to third and being eliminated.
France’s route through the group is consequently straightforward: a draw against Turkey would guarantee progress, while a defeat could prove decisive if Belgium win in Brussels.
The match may also see the return of Kylian Mbappe. The France captain scored the winning goal in the first meeting with Turkey, and Zidane is waiting to discover whether he can call on him for the decisive game in Bordeaux.
The precise elimination scenario for France is:
– France lose to Turkey.
– Belgium beat Italy.
– France finish third behind Italy on the head-to-head tie-breaker.
