Spain’s World Cup triumph in North America has dramatically reshaped the race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or, with teenage sensation Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane now leading the bookmakers’ odds ahead of Lionel Messi.
The World Cup, football’s most prestigious tournament, has historically had a major impact on who lifts the Ballon d’Or – and the latest figures from bookmakers show that this year is likely to be no exception.
World Cup glory propels Yamal and Kane
In the immediate aftermath of Spain’s victory at the 2026 World Cup in North America, betting markets moved sharply.
Before the final, Lionel Messi – already an eight-time Ballon d’Or winner – was the clear favourite. Analysts at 1xBet rated his chances at 2.50, reflecting strong confidence that the Argentinian could secure a record-extending ninth award.
But once the tournament concluded, the momentum shifted. Lamine Yamal, now a world champion with Spain, and England skipper Harry Kane share top billing in the updated odds, both priced at 3.00. Their joint status as frontrunners underlines how heavily World Cup performances weigh on voters’ minds in a Ballon d’Or year.
Messi and Rodri in close pursuit
Messi no longer stands alone at the front of the field. He now shares third place in the betting with Spain midfielder Rodri, who was named the best player of the 2026 World Cup.
Both Messi and Rodri are listed at 4.50, placing them just behind France’s Kylian Mbappe, whose tally of goals saw him finish as the tournament’s top scorer. Mbappe’s chances are currently rated at 5.00.
The positioning of Rodri alongside Messi reflects the strength of his influence in Spain’s World Cup-winning campaign, while Mbappe’s odds highlight the impact that individual brilliance and goalscoring records can still have in the Ballon d’Or conversation.
Dembele faces long odds to defend title
Reigning Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele is considered an outsider to retain the crown he claimed last year.
His chances stand at 25.00, suggesting bookmakers see only a slim possibility of back-to-back wins. The outlook is even less favourable for his team-mates Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz, whose odds are 29.00 and 35.00 respectively.
These numbers underline how fiercely competitive the 2026 race has become, particularly in a year dominated by World Cup narratives.
Historic move to London for 2026 ceremony
This year’s Ballon d’Or ceremony will take place on 26 October 2026 and, for the first time in the award’s 70-year history, it will not be held in Paris.
Instead, the event is moving to London, the English capital, in a symbolic break with tradition. Organisers have chosen London to honour the very first winner of the Ballon d’Or, Englishman Stanley Matthews, who received the trophy exactly 70 years ago.
The relocation pays tribute to Matthews’ legacy while underlining the Ballon d’Or’s European roots and global reach.
Bookmakers stress that the current odds are not fixed and may continue to fluctuate as the new season unfolds and players’ performances are further assessed.
Odds are subject to change
