Our leading tipster Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, has assessed the weekend’s Premier League fixtures, with Liverpool’s trip to Ipswich and Aston Villa’s visit to Hull among his key betting selections.
Ipswich Town v Liverpool – Friday, 20:00 BST, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool could make history by fielding three players who have each cost more than £100m at the same time. That depth helps explain why they are as short as 1/2 with Sky Bet to end a six-match winless run spanning the past two seasons.
However, Liverpool’s squad appears uneasy when attempting to apply Andoni Iraola’s style. Nottingham Forest recorded an expected goals figure of 2.3 at Anfield last weekend, the third-highest total achieved by a visiting team in the last 77 Premier League home matches.
That makes Ipswich marginally attractive despite Liverpool being favourites. Leif Davis is available at 4/1 with Sky Bet to score or provide an assist.
The attacking full-back has operated almost as a left winger in this system and scored at Manchester United after also finding the net twice during pre-season. His delivery has been equally notable, with Davis recording 21 assists across the past two Championship campaigns.
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 2-2 Liverpool
Best bet: Leif Davis to score or assist at 4/1
Newcastle United v Bournemouth – Saturday, 12:30
This should be an entertaining meeting between two managers who favour quick, vertical football.
Anthony Elanga has looked a transformed player under Matthias Jaissle, with his confidence high and his pace and directness making him particularly dangerous for a side that likes to play forward early. His goals against Liverpool and Tottenham showed the threat he carries.
Although Elanga can be inconsistent in front of goal, he is capable of scoring in bursts. The 100/30 offered by Sky Bet for him to score again is worth considering.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2-2 Bournemouth
Brentford v Sunderland – Saturday, 15:00
Brentford have arguably been the Premier League’s most impressive side after two matches.
Their victory over Tottenham and draw at Leeds suggest their underlying process has improved since last season. That was particularly clear during the opening 60 minutes at Elland Road, when Brentford were excellent.
They produced 15 shots and 31 touches in the opposition box during that period – the highest totals recorded by any away side at Elland Road in the opening hour since the start of last season.
Sunderland are difficult to support, especially away from home. Since the beginning of last season, their expected-goals difference per 90 minutes on the road is -0.8, a figure bettered even by relegated West Ham and Wolves.
Brentford have scored six times in three games in all competitions this season and led at half-time in each one. Backing them to be ahead both at the interval and at full-time is available at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-0 Sunderland
Best bet: Brentford/Brentford half-time/full-time at 6/4
Brighton & Hove Albion v Leeds United – Saturday, 15:00
Brighton & Hove Albion could be without Yankuba Minteh, Jack Hinshelwood, Kaoru Mitoma, Georginio Rutter and Mats Wieffer, which has weakened their position in the betting.
Since Daniel Farke moved Leeds United to a back three in December, they have defended comfortably away from home and adopted a cautious approach to first halves.
Goals have been scarce, with five of their past six away matches goalless at the interval. Another 0-0 half-time score is priced at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 Leeds United
Fulham v Crystal Palace – Saturday, 15:00
This is a difficult match to assess, with both managers eager to move their campaigns in a more positive direction.
Crystal Palace have lost the defensive identity that brought them success under Oliver Glasner, while their attacking progress has not yet become consistent. Fulham supporters are already frustrated with Alvaro Arbeloa after the cautious performance at Sunderland.
A low-scoring draw is the selection.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace
Manchester City v Coventry City – Saturday, 15:00
Manchester City have been highly reliable in this type of fixture under Pep Guardiola. Their victories against newly promoted opposition have generally been achieved without drama, so those including City in weekend accumulators should not expect too many anxious moments.
Rayan Cherki is priced at 5/6 with Sky Bet to register another assist. Since the start of last season, the French midfielder has averaged 0.45 assists per 90 minutes, a better rate than Bruno Fernandes.
With Manchester City expected to score three times, backing Cherki offers a stronger route into a City-related bet.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Coventry City
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur – Saturday, 15:00
Tottenham Hotspur remain difficult to trust despite spending heavily during the summer. They were more competitive in last weekend’s defeat by Newcastle United, but they remained vulnerable defensively and there is still a sense that previous failures are affecting the players.
Tottenham have attempted a major tactical and personnel overhaul. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, have greater continuity and showed signs of adopting Oliver Glasner’s methods in the impressive display at Anfield.
Forest were organised and secure without the ball, while their pressing became extremely dangerous when the full-backs advanced and they attacked almost as a front five.
Morgan Gibbs-White is expected to improve his attacking output under Glasner and scored at Anfield. He has managed at least one shot on target in each of his last four starts against Tottenham and averages 1.05 per game since the beginning of last season.
Backing Gibbs-White to have a shot on target while Forest avoid defeat is priced at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur
Hull City v Aston Villa – Saturday, 17:30, live on Sky Sports
Hull City have won their opening two matches without conceding, although they lost the expected-goals battle in both games.
That suggests their strong start may not be sustainable, and the point at which their form drops could arrive against Aston Villa. Unai Emery is expected to get Villa moving again quickly.
September has been Emery’s strongest month in the Premier League: he has lost only one of 18 matches during the month, winning 11.
He has also never lost against a promoted side with Aston Villa, winning 15 of those 21 matches. Villa have scored 23 goals in their past nine away games against newly promoted opposition.
The away win at 17/20 with Sky Bet is one of the weekend’s strongest options.
Score prediction: Hull City 0-2 Aston Villa
Best bet: Aston Villa to win at 17/20
Everton v Manchester United – Sunday, 14:00, live on Sky Sports
Everton had a difficult Deadline Day, but while their squad may be weaker, their strongest starting XI could be better than the betting market expects.
A home match against Manchester United may be exactly what David Moyes’ side needs. Everton can create a siege mentality, with supporters likely to embrace a pragmatic approach designed to secure a result. The club’s hierarchy is the target of fan criticism, rather than the players or Moyes.
Ipswich competed well against Manchester United until Harry Maguire’s controversial goal allowed Michael Carrick’s side to settle, attack more freely and exploit the space available.
Everton present a very different challenge and should make the game uncomfortable for United.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Manchester United
Arsenal v Chelsea – Sunday, 16:30, live on Sky Sports
Arsenal’s chances may not be receiving enough respect from the betting market, with the home win available at 4/6 with Sky Bet.
Mikel Arteta’s side are likely to control transitions, remain highly organised defensively and wait for opportunities to attack. Arsenal should also feel confident about containing Chelsea’s lively front three, although it is too soon to describe Chelsea as a serious team.
Chelsea have kept only one clean sheet in their past 18 Premier League matches. Arsenal, in the same period, have recorded 10.
Arsenal have also kept 11 clean sheets in their past 14 home matches and conceded only three goals across their last 13 home games in all competitions.
There is no need to make this selection complicated. Arsenal to win and fewer than 3.5 goals has landed in 10 of their past 14 games at Emirates Stadium. That combination is priced at evens.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Chelsea
