Manchester United and Tottenham must improve their finishing if they are to recover from disappointing starts to the 2026–27 season, according to analysis by TA ahead of their Premier League meeting this week.
The fixture brings together two long-established members of the “Big Six”, clubs whose minimum ambition is usually qualification for the UEFA Champions League. Yet Tottenham finished 17th in each of the past two seasons and are bottom of the table, while Manchester United, despite returning to the Champions League, were only 15th 17 months ago and have slipped into the bottom half after five matches.
Both clubs appointed new managers last season, with Michael Carrick taking charge at Manchester United and Roberto De Zerbi at Tottenham. However, their shared problem has been an inability to turn possession and chances into goals.
Carrick and De Zerbi’s teams average 60% possession, but both have struggled against deep, compact defences. Manchester United lost 2-0 to Hull City in their opening game and were unable to break down 10-man Manchester City in the derby.
Their finishing has also been poor. Both clubs’ goals scored are significantly below their expected goals (xG), placing them near the bottom of the Premier League. Set pieces helped compensate for their limited threat from open play last season, but that source has also declined. Van Hecke’s header from a free-kick in Tottenham’s 3-2 defeat by Aston Villa is the only set-piece goal scored by either side this season.
Different problems, familiar pressure
Manchester United’s immediate difficulties include their poor start, a demanding October schedule and uncertainty over when injured players will return. Only five points from five matches has intensified scrutiny of Carrick, although the club continues to support him and expects him to secure European qualification through the league.
The former Manchester United manager also faces the weight of the club’s longer-term instability. Since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, the club has changed managers repeatedly, spent heavily on transfers and wages and failed to mount a sustained title challenge. It has finished second and third, won trophies and produced memorable performances, but has not competed seriously for the championship across 13 seasons.
Tottenham’s central concern is a lack of belief. TA noted that the team has often collapsed after conceding, winning only 21 of its 76 league matches over the past two seasons one more than in the whole of 2023-24. A poor home record and lack of goals have followed from that failure to expect victory.
Injuries have made the problem harder to solve. Since November 2024, almost every first-team player has spent a significant period on the sidelines. Dejan Kulusevski injured his right kneecap in May 2025 after an outstanding start to the 2024-25 campaign and has only recently returned to full training. James Maddison tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in summer 2025, but has returned to training and is nearing recovery. Kulusevski still requires more time before playing again.
Four Tottenham head coaches have been appointed since the beginning of last season, each dealing with the consequences of that injury crisis.
Squad changes and managerial uncertainty
Manchester United unexpectedly finished third last season and completed league doubles against several leading sides, with Carrick judged to have done enough to retain his job. The club’s 2024-25 league campaign had been poor under Ruben Amorim, who took charge in November 2024, although reaching the Europa League final in Bilbao against Tottenham offered some consolation.
Tottenham’s injury situation has improved and supporters remain encouraged by De Zerbi, who ended last season with seven strong performances. Summer recruitment has strengthened the squad and improved its depth, while Daniel Levy is no longer executive chairman. Tottenham ended a 17-year trophy drought in 2025 and impressed in last season’s Champions League, but a 3-1 League Cup defeat by Liverpool and failure to qualify for Europe leave the FA Cup as their only remaining cup route this season.
Their defensive numbers have improved, while attacking creativity has recovered slightly from the low point of Frank’s tenure. Manchester United are also scoring more per game than under Erik ten Hag and Amorim and conceding fewer.
Carrick’s preferred Manchester United line-up is broadly clear, although he must decide how Baleba fits in. Injuries and a schedule expected to contain at least 50 matches, compared with 40 last season, will require rotation. A heavily changed side lost badly to Brighton in the League Cup. Carrick rates Matthijs de Ligt and Mason Mount highly, but both have suffered injury problems.
Tottenham are settled in goal, while Destiny Udogie and Robertson compete at left-back. De Zerbi has yet to find the best midfield role for £85m signing Matheus Fernandes, and the return of Maddison and Kulusevski will complicate selection further. Marmoush, Savio and Solanke have shown promise without fully establishing themselves. De Zerbi has altered his starting XI by an average of 3.2 players per match, compared with 1.5 under Carrick.
A significant test
The match is especially important for Manchester United. Defeat would leave them with one win from their opening six league games, the worst start in the club’s history. Tottenham are winless away from home and have not scored on the road this season, although they beat Manchester United in all four meetings during 2024-25.
Tottenham may therefore feel greater pressure to win, but supporters and senior figures recognise that De Zerbi’s tenure is still at an early stage. A competitive 2-2 draw, accompanied by attacking threat and a better overall display, would not necessarily disappoint the majority of fans.
There are reasons for both clubs to expect improvement. Manchester United’s squad is stronger than their league position suggests, although October brings two matches a week, including European away games at Atletico Madrid and Como, followed by trips to Leeds United and Chelsea.
Tottenham have shown a strong desire to win in their last two league matches. Their task is to convert those attacking spells into goals and control. For both possession-based teams, improved finishing could eventually bring results closer to the quality of the chances they create.
