Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, believes the unusual international break could have a significant effect on this weekend’s Premier League fixtures, with fatigue, injuries, travel and late returns likely to influence the opening stages of matches.
The break lasted three weeks, with nations playing up to four games rather than the usual two. Over the past five seasons, first-half goals in the Championship and Premier League have fallen from an average of 1.22 to 0.92 in the first matchday after the first international break.
In the Premier League alone, the average has dropped to 0.82 goals per first half, while 50% of matches in the sample have been goalless at half-time. That compares with a long-term average of 27%.
Leeds United have conceded only two first-half goals in their past 20 matches in all competitions, with 11 of those games finishing 0-0 at the interval. Jones Knows’ best bet for Arsenal v Leeds United is half-time 0-0 at 9/4 with Sky Bet. His score prediction is Arsenal 1-0 Leeds United.
Aston Villa v Brentford
Jones Knows is prepared to oppose the market’s apparent enthusiasm for Brentford, who are being priced close to favourites at Villa Park. He believes Aston Villa’s rebuild is beginning to take shape after Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson impressed in the win at Tottenham.
Unai Emery’s record after international breaks also offers encouragement: he is unbeaten in his last 10 such matches with Aston Villa, winning six. A home win is available at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford.
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Bournemouth have failed to win any of their four Premier League games without Alex Scott since the start of last season, including a 1-1 home draw with Burnley. Scott will be unavailable for six weeks because of a tendon issue.
Chelsea are 7/10 to win, but Jones Knows prefers a goals-based wager. All five of Chelsea’s games have gone over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.4 per match, while both teams have scored in 13 of Bournemouth’s past 17 away fixtures.
The recommended bet is Chelsea to win, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 6/4.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth.
Ipswich Town v Fulham
Leif Davis has made six attempts in his past four starts, with three on target and two goals. Operating as an attacking left-back in Gary O’Neil’s 4-2-3-1, he often functions as an additional winger when Ipswich Town have sustained possession.
Davis to score or assist is priced at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 2-1 Fulham.
Sunderland v Brighton
Despite the absences of Brian Brobbey and Dan Ballard, Jones Knows believes the market may have overreacted to Sunderland’s injury news. Since promotion, Sunderland have lost only five of 24 home matches and have conceded fewer than one goal per game at the Stadium of Light.
Sunderland are 2/1 to win, while the draw-no-bet price of 11/10 is considered the better option.
Score prediction: Sunderland 2-1 Brighton.
Manchester United v Tottenham
Manchester United were outrun by 6.5km in their last match, a defeat by Fulham. That was the second-largest distance by which a team has been out-run in a Premier League game this season.
United rank in the bottom five for distance covered, the bottom four for sprints and last for high-speed runs. A failure to win would leave them with their worst league start in 40 years, yet they are 4/6 favourites with Sky Bet.
Tottenham are the selection in the double-chance market at 6/5.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Tottenham.
Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
Oliver Glasner will face Crystal Palace for the first time since leaving at the end of last season. The fixture has added significance after Nottingham Forest replaced Palace in the Europa League because of multi-club ownership rules.
Although all four recent meetings have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, the matches have averaged seven cards, and all five have exceeded 4.5 cards. Over 3.5 cards is available at evens.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
Hull City v Everton
Hull City’s direct approach and Oli McBurnie’s all-action style have contributed to opposition centre-backs being fouled an average of once per game. Hull have the league’s highest long-pass rate at 21%, rank lowest for possession and build-up attacks, and McBurnie has contested a league-high 57 aerial duels.
Everton defender Jarrad Branthwaite has been fouled three times in his past two matches. Branthwaite to be fouled is priced at evens.
Score prediction: Hull City 1-1 Everton.
Liverpool v Manchester City
Anfield is expected to be hostile after Manchester City were found guilty of serious financial-rule breaches across nine seasons by an independent Premier League Commission. City have appealed, meaning the sporting consequences remain unresolved.
Jones Knows says there is currently little evidence the verdict has destabilised Pep Guardiola’s squad. Guardiola has backed the club, while Erling Haaland has called for positivity. Liverpool, meanwhile, remain a work in progress and have suffered significant injury problems during the break.
Manchester City, top of the Premier League, are 7/5 with Sky Bet to win away.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City.
Coventry City v Newcastle United
Coventry City are the only team to have faced the Premier League’s top three, losing those matches 8-0 on aggregate. Their difficult schedule may help explain their poor start.
Set pieces could provide an opportunity for Frank Lampard’s side. Bobby Thomas has had 10 shots in five games, while Newcastle United have conceded 31 shots from set pieces this season, more than any other team. Thomas scored three times during Coventry’s promotion campaign and is priced at 8/1 to score.
Score prediction: Coventry City 1-1 Newcastle United.
