The sides have met frequently in recent years, including Croatia’s 2-1 comeback win in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, when Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic overturned Kieran Trippier’s early free-kick.
England have since begun both Euro 2020 and the 2026 World Cup with victories over Croatia. Their latest meeting could again prove significant, with both teams having beaten Czechia and lost to Spain in their opening two Nations League Group A3 matches. The head-to-head results may determine who reaches the last eight next March.
England favoured by Opta
Opta’s model gives England a narrow advantage. Across 10,000 simulations, the Three Lions won 48.6% of matches, Croatia won 27.4% and 24% ended in draws.
England have not lost to Croatia in four meetings since the 2018 semi-final, recording three wins and one draw. That run includes two Nations League games in 2018, a goalless draw at home and a 2-1 England victory away.
Overall, England have won five of their past seven matches against Croatia in all competitions, drawing one and losing one. The defeats include the 3-2 loss in 2007 that ended their hopes of qualifying for Euro 2008. England scored at least four goals in three of those victories: 4-1 in September 2008, 5-1 in September 2009 and 4-2 at the World Cup this June.
Croatia seeking home response
Slaven Bilic began his return as Croatia manager with a 2-1 away win over Czechia last weekend, with Luka Modric and Marco Pasalic scoring. However, Croatia then lost 4-1 to Spain in Seville, despite briefly drawing level through Dion Beljo’s first international goal.
Croatia managed only five shots and 0.47 expected goals, compared with Spain’s 16 attempts and 1.81 xG. Their only lower Nations League figures came against France in March 2025 (0.18), Sweden in November 2020 (0.3) and England in October 2018 (0.42).
The defeat means Croatia have lost five of 10 matches in 2026, matching their highest number of defeats in a calendar year, also recorded in 2018 and 2020. They have never lost six in one year.
Croatia have won eight of their past nine competitive home matches at Stadion HNK in Rijeka, drawing the other, since a 1-0 defeat by Turkiye in October 2023. They have lost only four of their past 41 competitive home games, although three came in the Nations League against France and Portugal in 2020 and Austria in 2022.
Tuchel has selection decisions
England beat Czechia 2-0 in Prague through goals from Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane, aided by Pavel Sulc’s first-half red card. It was their sixth win in eight Nations League matches across the top two tiers, with 20 goals scored, surpassing their record from their first 18 games in the competition (five wins, six draws, seven defeats and 18 goals).
The victory was England’s eighth consecutive away win in all competitions. A ninth would match their only previous such run, achieved under Alf Ramsey between December 1965 and October 1967.
Thomas Tuchel restored Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back against Czechia, his first England start since October 2024, and he created Gordon’s opener. It was his first international assist since the Finland match. Jarell Quansah had started against Spain, but Alexander-Arnold leads England for chances created with three, behind Gordon’s four, and ranks second for passes into the final third with 32, behind Elliot Anderson’s 40.
Tuchel also has midfield choices after Myles Lewis-Skelly made consecutive starts in Declan Rice’s absence, Alex Scott won his first senior cap and Morgan Gibbs-White impressed from the bench.
Players to watch
Ivan Perisic has started both Croatia matches during this international break. The 37-year-old, who scored and assisted against England in the 2018 semi-final, has 15 goal involvements in his past 18 starts for Croatia: six goals and nine assists.
Kane has scored in each of his past five away internationals, despite hitting the crossbar with a penalty after slipping against Spain. He can become the fourth England player to score in six successive away matches, after James Windridge, Tom Finney and Stan Mortensen.
