Arsenal have been identified as the leading contenders to win the 2026-27 Premier League title, according to an Opta supercomputer prediction based on 10,000 simulations of the season.
The model gives Mikel Arteta’s side a 38% chance of retaining the trophy after they were crowned champions of England in 2025-26. Arsenal are clear favourites in the forecast, with Manchester City placed second on 20.5%.
Liverpool complete the top three, although the model gives them a 9.2% probability of finishing the season as champions.
Manchester United are fourth in the prediction, with a 6.2% chance of winning the Premier League. Aston Villa occupy fifth place on 4.8%, while Chelsea are sixth after being given a 4.1% chance of taking the title.
The figures were produced by running 10,000 different simulations of the 2026-27 Premier League campaign. Each simulation was used to assess the potential outcome of the season and identify the teams most likely to finish top.
Arsenal’s position at the head of the forecast reflects their status as the reigning champions. The north London club are followed by Manchester City, who are judged to have slightly more than twice Liverpool’s projected chance of claiming the title.
Liverpool remain among the principal challengers, but their 9.2% figure places them some distance behind the two teams above them. Manchester United are the only other club to receive a probability above six per cent.
Aston Villa’s inclusion in the top five puts them ahead of Chelsea in the model’s assessment. Chelsea’s 4.1% chance leaves them sixth among the seven clubs listed as the leading candidates for the championship.
The forecast follows the conclusion of the 2025-26 season, when Arsenal won the Premier League. Manchester City and Manchester United also finished in the top three in that campaign.
The Opta projection does not determine the final standings, but instead represents the outcome of repeated statistical simulations. On that basis, Arsenal begin the new season as the team most strongly favoured to remain at the summit, with Manchester City the closest predicted challengers.
Liverpool’s position in third means they are considered the next most likely winners, while Manchester United, Aston Villa and Chelsea make up the remainder of the leading group identified by the model.
