Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Hull City will all attempt to preserve their 100% Premier League records this weekend, but one of those unbeaten starts is certain to end when Arsenal host Chelsea on Sunday.
The four sides followed up opening victories with statement results on matchday two. Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 4-1 at Selhurst Park, Hull City defeated Coventry City 1-0 and Chelsea edged Brighton 4-3 in a thrilling first home match for Xabi Alonso as manager.
Arsenal also secured a narrow victory, winning 1-0 at Villa Park on Monday. Aston Villa joined Tottenham in the relegation zone after Spurs were beaten by Newcastle United.
Here is how the Opta supercomputer assesses the weekend’s Premier League fixtures.
Ipswich Town v Liverpool
The weekend begins on Friday, with Liverpool travelling to Ipswich Town as Andoni Iraola continues to search for his first victory as Liverpool boss.
Liverpool are the model’s strongest pick for an away win, with a 59.3% chance of victory. They have never lost in six Premier League visits to Portman Road, winning four and drawing two.
Ipswich were victorious in 19.7% of the simulations, but have lost their past four top-flight meetings with Liverpool while conceding 17 goals.
The Tractor Boys can take encouragement from their home record. They are unbeaten in their last 18 league matches at Portman Road, a sequence comprising 17 games in the Championship and one in the Premier League. Gary O’Neil was the last manager to beat Liverpool while in charge of a newly promoted team, doing so with Bournemouth in March 2023.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 20 league games against promoted opposition, but desperately need a result here. They have failed to win any of their past six league matches, drawing four and losing two, with that run stretching back to the 2025-26 campaign.
Newcastle United v Bournemouth
Bournemouth manager Marco Rose is also still waiting for his first win. His side have a 31.2% chance of taking three points at Newcastle United, while the hosts have been given a 43.9% probability after settling comfortably into life under Matthias Jaissle.
Newcastle are the supercomputer’s favourites despite being without a win in their last eight Premier League matches against Bournemouth. That run includes five draws and three defeats and dates back to a 4-1 victory in July 2020, when Eddie Howe was in charge of the Cherries.
Bournemouth have won their last two Premier League away games against Newcastle and average 1.75 points per game at St. James’ Park, having collected 14 points from eight visits.
The Cherries have taken the lead but failed to win in each of their last two matches, although they drew their most recent game against Everton. They have recorded 19 Premier League draws since the beginning of last season and have a 24.9% chance of another stalemate in this fixture.
Brentford v Sunderland
Brentford’s impressive home form is expected to continue when Sunderland visit the Gtech Community Stadium.
The Bees have recorded five clean sheets in 11 Premier League home matches during 2026, including three in their last four games. That already equals the number of shutouts they managed at the Gtech Community Stadium across 2025 and 2024 combined, when they kept two and three respectively.
Brentford have not lost any of their last four home matches against Sunderland in all competitions, winning two and drawing two. Their previous defeat in this fixture came in a 1-0 third-tier meeting in August 1987.
The model gives Brentford a 60.7% chance of extending that unbeaten run to five games. Sunderland won in only 17.4% of simulations.
Sunderland have collected just eight points from their last 16 top-flight matches in London, with two wins, two draws and 12 defeats. They have lost their last three such games.
However, Sunderland have never suffered successive league defeats against Brentford. Their most recent meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for the Bees in March.
Brighton v Leeds United
Brighton made an explosive start to the campaign by thrashing Aston Villa, before being involved in the wrong end of a seven-goal contest against Chelsea.
The Seagulls are expected to respond positively against unbeaten Leeds United. Brighton have a 50.4% chance of victory and have avoided defeat in their last 10 home league matches against Leeds, winning seven and drawing three.
Leeds were given a 24.5% chance of winning, narrowly below the 25.1% probability of a draw. They did win the most recent league meeting between the teams, beating Brighton 1-0 at Elland Road, but have never won consecutive top-flight games against them.
Leeds have played more matches at the Amex without winning than at any other stadium in their history. Their record there is 10 games, three draws and seven defeats.
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Fulham and Crystal Palace meet on Saturday with both Alvaro Arbeloa and Pierre Sage still struggling to establish themselves in the Premier League.
The fixture is the weekend’s likeliest draw, at 26.8%, although Fulham remain favourites after winning 43.8% of the supercomputer’s simulations. Palace have a 29.4% chance of victory.
Fulham have won only two of their last 13 Premier League matches against Palace, drawing six and losing five. Both of those victories came at Selhurst Park, in 2022-23 and 2024-25.
Palace could provide Sage with encouragement, having gone unbeaten in their past seven top-flight visits to Craven Cottage. They have won four and drawn three of those matches.
Fulham have lost their opening three fixtures of a top-flight season only twice, in 1951-52 and 2020-21, and were relegated on both occasions. Palace, meanwhile, are trying to avoid losing their first three top-flight games for the first time since 2017-18.
Manchester City v Coventry City
Manchester City are the supercomputer’s most likely winners on matchday three as they aim to maintain a perfect start under Enzo Maresca against Coventry City.
City could begin a Premier League season with three wins for the third time in four attempts, having previously done so in 2023-24 and 2024-25. They are also unbeaten in their last 30 matches against newly promoted teams, winning 27 and drawing three since a 2-1 defeat by Leeds in April 2021.
Coventry have yet to earn a point or score a goal this season. They have never begun a league campaign with three defeats without scoring, although they have started with three losses in 1919-20, 1949-50 and 2011-12.
Frank Lampard’s side are considerable outsiders at the Etihad Stadium. Coventry were given just a 6.8% chance of winning, compared with 82.4% for City.
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham
Tottenham are one of two teams yet to collect a point or score this season, and Roberto De Zerbi’s side will attempt to end their difficult start away to Nottingham Forest.
Spurs have lost 3-0 at Brentford and 2-0 at home to Newcastle United. A third successive defeat would be only the fifth time they have opened a league campaign with three losses, after 1912-13, 1958-59, 1974-75 and 1979-80.
Tottenham have failed to score in their first three games of a season only once, in 1974-75. They last went three Premier League matches without finding the net in November 2021.
Forest are also still looking for their first win after taking one point from their opening two matches under Oliver Glasner. The Austrian manager went 12 Premier League matches unbeaten with Crystal Palace between April and September 2025, but since October only Scott Parker, with 18 defeats, has lost more games in the competition than Glasner’s 16.
Forest are narrow favourites at the City Ground, with a 39.2% win probability. Tottenham’s chances were assessed at 34.6%, leaving a 26.2% likelihood of a draw.
Hull City v Aston Villa
Aston Villa have not merely failed to earn a point or score a goal this season; they are yet to register a shot on target. Their next opportunity comes in Saturday’s late kick-off against Hull City, who have won both of their opening matches.
No team since records began in 2003-04 has started a Premier League season without a shot on target in each of its first three matches. Swansea City were the only other side to go through their first two games without one, in 2017-18, and they were relegated at the end of that campaign.
Villa have won six of their eight Premier League meetings with Hull, drawing one and losing one. Their most recent meeting went Hull’s way, however, with the Tigers winning 2-0 at home in February 2015.
Hull could become only the second newly promoted side to begin a Premier League season with three consecutive victories, following Bolton Wanderers in 2001-02. They have never previously won their first three fixtures of a top-flight campaign.
Sergej Jakirovic’s team have a 34.8% chance of victory, only slightly below the 39.3% probability assigned to Unai Emery’s Aston Villa. The likelihood of a draw is 25.9%.
Everton v Manchester United
Everton host Manchester United at Hill Dickinson Stadium in the first of Sunday’s two matches.
The Toffees are seeking consecutive wins at the venue for only the second time. Their previous such sequence came in March, when they beat Burnley 2-0 and Chelsea 3-0.
Manchester United recovered from falling behind to beat Ipswich 5-2 last weekend, avoiding the prospect of becoming the first team to begin a Premier League season with successive defeats against promoted opposition.
The match marks Michael Carrick’s 20th Premier League game in his second spell in charge of United. No side has won more points than the Red Devils during that period, with United collecting 42.
Only five managers have taken at least 45 points from their first 20 games at a club: Jose Mourinho in his first spell with Chelsea, Antonio Conte with Chelsea, John Gregory with Aston Villa, Arne Slot with Liverpool and Carlo Ancelotti with Chelsea. Their respective totals were 49, 49, 48, 47 and 45.
David Moyes has lost 23 Premier League games against United, a total exceeded only by Harry Redknapp, who has lost 24. The visitors are therefore given the edge, winning 43.7% of simulations compared with 31% for Everton.
Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsenal and Chelsea bring matchday three to a close in a major London derby at the Emirates Stadium, with both teams attempting to preserve their perfect records.
The Gunners have begun only one of the last 21 Premier League seasons with three victories, achieving that feat in 2022-23. Chelsea last opened a campaign with three wins in 2018-19 under Maurizio Sarri.
Arsenal have nevertheless lost only one of their last 29 Premier League London derbies, winning 22 and drawing six. They are unbeaten in their past 16, with 12 wins and four draws. The last team to put together a longer unbeaten run in London derbies was Arsenal themselves, who went 17 matches without defeat between August 2022 and November 2023.
Mikel Arteta’s champions are strong favourites, with a 56.8% probability of victory. Chelsea’s chances were rated at 20%.
The numbers also point to a contrast in styles. Arsenal have faced fewer shots than any other Premier League side across the opening two matchdays, with 11, while their opponents have managed only one shot on target. Their expected goals against figure of 0.54 is also the division’s lowest.
Chelsea’s first two fixtures, by comparison, have produced 12 goals in total, with the Blues scoring seven and conceding five. If this match contains at least five goals, they would become the first top-flight team since Arsenal in 1988-89 to have seen five or more goals in each of their opening three games of a season.
